An analysis of the security dilemma and regional cooperation paths for transboundary water resources governance in Central Asia
中亚跨境水资源治理的安全困境与区域合作路径探析

摘要

中亚是全球跨境水资源矛盾较为突出的区域之一。苏联解体后，流域水资源分配由统一计划调配转为主权国家间利益博弈，水安全成为影响区域稳定与发展的核心议题。本文引入安全困境理论，剖析中亚跨境水治理困局的表现与成因，评估现有合作机制的成效与局限，并提出优化路径。研究表明，中亚跨境水资源治理呈现典型的安全困境特征，具体表现为水量分配零和博弈、水质污染责任推诿、生态危机公地悲剧；原因在于主权诉求与流域整体性的矛盾、经济结构与利益错位、制度供给不足、域外大国干预。未来破解困局需完善流域治理规则体系，依托“一带一路”深化多边务实合作，推动区域水治理从主权对抗走向协同共赢，维护中亚水安全以建设区域命运共同体。

Abstract

Central Asia is one of the regions in the world where transboundary water resources disputes are relatively prominent. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the allocation of water resources in river basins shifted from unified planning to a game of interests among sovereign states, making water security a core issue affecting regional stability and development. This paper introduces the security dilemma theory to analyze the manifestations and causes of transboundary water governance challenges in Central Asia, evaluates the effectiveness and limitations of existing cooperation mechanisms, and proposes optimization pathways. The study reveals that transboundary water governance in Central Asia exhibits typical characteristics of a security dilemma, specifically manifested in zero-sum game water distribution, deflection of responsibility for water pollution and the tragedy of the commons in ecological crises. The root causes lie in the contradiction between sovereignty claims and basin-wide integrity, misaligned economic structures and interests, insufficient institutional supply, and interference by external powers. Future solutions require improving the basin governance rule system, deepening multilateral practical cooperation under the Belt and Road framework, and steering regional water governance from sovereignty-based confrontation toward collaborative outcomes, thereby safeguarding Central Asian water security to foster a regional community with a shared future.