Climate Change and Meteorology
Climate Change and Meteorology. 2026; 2: (1) ; 10.12208/j.ccm.20260002 .
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南京市溧水区气象局 江苏南京
*通讯作者： 孙文婷,单位：南京市溧水区气象局 江苏南京; ；
本文基于1976-2020年淮河流域50个气象台站逐日降水观测数据以及国家气候中心BCC-CSM1.1-m全球气候模式的历史模拟与未来预估数据，构建了涵盖极端降水平均强度（PA）、日数（PN）、极值（PE）及频率（PP）的综合指标体系。采用Mann-Kendall检验、多元线性回归及区间订正等方法，分析了淮河流域夏季极端降水的历史时空演变规律、气候模式的模拟性能与偏差订正效果，并对未来变化趋势进行了预估。主要结果表明：（1）历史时期（1976-2020）淮河流域夏季PN与PP在90年代后呈现增强趋势，部分年份可能存在显著突变；PA与PE年际波动剧烈，整体线性趋势不显著。空间上，PN与PP呈南多北少格局，PA高值区位于沿海及西南部，PE则在流域西南部出现局地强中心。（2）BCC-CSM1.1-m模式对历史时期淮河流域夏季极端降水存在显著的系统性低估，尤其在PN和PP的模拟上偏差较大。区间订正法能有效减小模式模拟降水在量级上的偏差，显著改善对降水峰值的模拟结果。（3）未来预估显示，淮河流域夏季PA和PE将经历非线性的多阶段演变：21世纪初期波动性增强，21世纪中叶（约2035-2060）显著大幅度减弱，21世纪后半叶（约2060年后）则再次转为波动中回升并增强。空间分布上也将经历从历史格局到世纪中期普遍减弱，再到世纪末期部分恢复及格局重塑的动态调整，预示未来极端降水高风险区可能发生转移。
Based on daily precipitation observation data from 50 meteorological stations in the Huaihe River Basin from 1976 to 2020, as well as historical simulations and future projections from the BCC-CSM1.1-m global climate model by the National Climate Center, this study constructed a comprehensive indicator system encompassing extreme precipitation intensity (PA), days (PN), extremes (PE), and frequency (PP). Methods such as the Mann-Kendall test, multiple linear regression, and interval correction were employed to analyze the historical spatiotemporal evolution patterns of summer extreme precipitation in the Huaihe River Basin, the simulation performance of the climate model, and the effectiveness of bias correction. Future trends were also projected. Key findings include: (1) During the historical period (1976-2020), PN and PP in the Huaihe River Basin summer showed an increasing trend after the 1990s, with possible significant abrupt changes in some years. PA and PE exhibited intense interannual fluctuations, with no significant overall linear trend. Spatially, PN and PP followed a pattern of higher values in the south and lower in the north, while PA high-value zones were located along the coast and southwestern regions, and PE exhibited localized strong centers in the southwestern part of the basin. (2) The BCC-CSM1.1-m model significantly underestimated historical summer extreme precipitation in the Huaihe River Basin, particularly in the simulation of PN and PP. The interval correction method effectively reduced the magnitude bias in model-simulated precipitation and significantly improved the simulation of precipitation peaks. (3) Future projections indicate that PA and PE in the Huaihe River Basin summer will undergo nonlinear, multi-stage evolution: increasing variability in the early 21st century, significant and substantial weakening by mid-century (approximately 2035-2060), and a subsequent fluctuating rebound and intensification in the latter half of the century (after 2060). Spatially, the distribution will also dynamically adjust from the historical pattern to widespread weakening by mid-century, followed by partial recovery and reconfiguration by the end of the century, suggesting potential shifts in high-risk areas for future extreme precipitation.
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