Prediction and analysis of health resource demand in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region based on the Grey System GM(1,1) model
基于灰色系统GM（1,1）模型的新疆卫生资源需求预测分析

摘要

本研究基于2013-2022年《中国卫生统计年鉴》数据，运用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型，对新疆2023-2027年卫生资源需求趋势进行预测。结果显示：2023-2027年，执业（助理）医师总数预计增长至8.56万人，年均增长约2500人，年复合增速约3.4%；临床、中医、口腔医师数分别以2.7%、7.7%、6.8%的年复合增速稳定增长；全科医师加速扩容，年复合增速15%，2027年达6353人，政策驱动效应显著。公共卫生医师因历史数据波动大，需结合政策动态调整。研究发现新疆卫生人力呈“总量增长、结构分化”特征，为新疆卫生资源合理配置提供科学依据，助力医疗服务体系高质量发展。

Abstract

Based on data from the China Health Statistics Yearbook (2013–2022), this study employs the grey system GM(1,1) model to predict the trend of health resource demand in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region from 2023 to 2027. The results show that during 2023–2027:The total number of licensed (assistant) physicians is expected to increase to 85,600, with an average annual growth of approximately 2,500 and a compound annual growth rate of about 3.4%;The number of clinical physicians, Traditional Chinese Medicine physicians, and stomatologists will grow steadily at a CAGR of 2.7%, 7.7%, and 6.8% respectively; General practitioners will undergo accelerated expansion, with a CAGR of 15%, reaching 6,353 by 2027, reflecting a significant policy-driven effect; Due to large fluctuations in historical data, the number of public health physicians requires dynamic adjustment in light of policy changes. The study reveals that health human resources in Xinjiang exhibit the characteristics of "total quantity growth and structural differentiation". This finding provides a scientific basis for the rational allocation of health resources in Xinjiang and contributes to the high-quality development of its medical service system.