Impact assessment of climate change on run-off hydropower generation in southwest China
气候变化对西南地区径流式水电站发电量的影响评估

摘要

随着气候变化加剧，西南地区径流式水电站的水资源供给出现明显波动，直接影响发电量的稳定性和可预测性。本文基于历史水文数据和气候情景模拟，分析气温、降水及径流变化对水电站发电量的影响机制。研究表明，气候异常事件频发使季节性径流分布发生显著变化，洪水期发电量增加而枯水期下降，整体年发电量呈区域性差异性波动趋势。评估结果为水电站调度优化与能源管理提供量化依据，有助于提高水电资源利用效率和系统韧性。

Abstract

With the intensification of climate change, water supply to run-of-river hydropower stations in Southwest China has shown significant fluctuations, directly impacting the stability and predictability of power generation. This study analyzes the mechanisms by which temperature, precipitation, and runoff variations affect hydropower output through historical hydrological data and climate scenario simulations. The research demonstrates that frequent climatic anomalies have caused marked changes in seasonal runoff distribution, resulting in increased power generation during flood periods and decreased output in dry seasons, with overall annual power generation exhibiting regionalized fluctuation trends. The evaluation results provide quantitative evidence for optimizing hydropower station dispatching and energy management, contributing to improved utilization efficiency of hydropower resources and enhanced system resilience.