The green innovation effects of two-way FDI under institutional environment thresholds
制度环境门槛下双向FDI的绿色创新效应研究

摘要

本文基于2004—2023年中国30个省份的面板数据，采用双向固定效应模型和Hansen面板门槛模型，基于Super-SBM方法测算的绿色创新效率指标实证考察了双向FDI协同发展对绿色技术创新的影响及其非线性机制。研究发现：第一，外商直接投资（IFDI）、对外直接投资（OFDI）及二者的协同发展均对绿色技术创新表现出显著的促进作用。第二，该影响并非线性，而是依赖于地区制度环境，存在基于环境规制强度与市场化水平的双重门槛效应。环境规制在水平较低时的强化作用较好，但其效应存在递减区间，过度规制反而会抑制双向FDI的绿色创新溢出；而市场化水平的提升则展现出更为稳健且积极的推动作用，当其跨越较高门槛后，能最大程度释放双向FDI的积极效应。基于此，本文提出如下政策建议：应当坚持高水平对外开放，协同引导IFDI与OFDI的绿色化发展；实施精准化和差异化的环境监管制度，规避出现“一刀切”式规制手段，从而平衡“创新补偿”与“遵循成本”；坚定不移地深化市场化改革，通过优化要素配置、加强知识产权保护来夯实绿色创新的制度基础，从而充分激发双向FDI的绿色动能；推动环境政策与市场政策的协同发力。

Abstract

Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2004 to 2023, this paper employs the two-way fixed effects model and Hansen's panel threshold model to empirically investigate the impact of the coordinated development of two-way FDI on green technological innovation and its nonlinear mechanism, using the green innovation efficiency index calculated by the Super-SBM method. The research findings indicate that inward foreign direct investment (IFDI), outward foreign direct investment (OFDI), and their coordinated development all have a significant promoting effect on green technological innovation. Second, this impact is not linear but significantly dependent on the regional institutional environment, with a dual-threshold effect based on the intensity of environmental regulations and the level of marketization. The strengthening effect of environmental regulations is better at a lower level, but its effect has a decreasing interval, and excessive regulation may instead inhibit the green innovation spillover of two-way FDI; while the improvement of the marketization level shows a more stable and positive promoting effect. When it crosses a higher threshold, it can maximize the positive effect of two-way FDI. Based on this, the following policy suggestions are proposed: We should adhere to high-level opening up to the outside world and coordinate the green development of IFDI and OFDI; implement precise and differentiated environmental supervision to avoid "one-size-fits-all" regulations and balance "innovation compensation" and "compliance costs"; unswervingly deepen market-oriented reforms, and consolidate the institutional foundation of green innovation by optimizing factor allocation and strengthening intellectual property protection, thereby fully stimulating the green potential of two-way FDI; promote the coordinated efforts of environmental policies and market policies.