The impact of virtual agglomeration on urban economic resilience
虚拟集聚对城市经济韧性的影响研究

摘要

城市经济韧性作为城市韧性的关键子系统，在当前复杂多变的外部环境下，已成为国家经济安全与高质量发展的重要支撑。如何依托新一代信息技术推动的虚拟集聚来增强城市经济韧性，是当前亟待深入探讨的关键议题。本文通过构建综合评价体系测度2003-2023年中国283个城市的经济韧性，并采用固定效应模型与中介效应模型，探讨虚拟集聚影响城市经济韧性的内在机制与路径。实证结果表明，虚拟集聚对城市经济韧性具有显著正向影响（系数为0.015，在1%水平上显著），且通过提升城市创新水平（中介系数为0.606，在5%水平上显著）与促进产业结构高级化（中介系数为0.091，在5%水平上显著）两条路径间接增强经济韧性。研究表明，虚拟集聚能够借助知识外溢效应与产业结构优化有效增强城市经济系统的抗风险与自适应能力，应积极引导虚拟集聚的有序发展，强化其创新驱动与优化产业结构功能，为全面提升城市经济韧性提供制度保障与路径支撑。

Abstract

Urban economic resilience, as a key subsystem of overall urban resilience, has become a crucial support for national economic security and high-quality development in the current complex and volatile external environment. How to enhance urban economic resilience through virtual agglomeration driven by new-generation information technology is a critical issue that requires in-depth exploration. This study constructs a comprehensive evaluation system to measure the economic resilience of 283 Chinese cities from 2003 to 2023, and employs fixed-effects and mediating effects models to investigate the internal mechanisms and pathways through which virtual agglomeration influences urban economic resilience. The empirical results show that virtual agglomeration has a significant positive impact on urban economic resilience (with a coefficient of 0.015, significant at the 1% level), and indirectly enhances resilience through two pathways: boosting urban innovation capability (with a coefficient of 0.606, significant at the 5% level) and promoting industrial structure upgrading (with a coefficient of 0.091, significant at the 5% level). The research demonstrates that virtual agglomeration can effectively strengthen the risk resistance and adaptive capacity of urban economic systems through knowledge spillover effects and industrial structure optimization. It is essential to actively guide the orderly development of virtual agglomeration, reinforce its role in driving innovation and optimizing industrial structure, and provide institutional support and strategic pathways for comprehensively enhancing urban economic resilience.