Design method for resilience improvement of water conservancy hubs against extreme climates
面向极端气候的水利枢纽韧性提升设计方法

摘要

极端气候引发的洪水、干旱、风暴等灾害，对水利枢纽的结构安全与功能稳定性构成严峻挑战。面向极端气候的水利枢纽韧性提升设计方法，以增强系统抵抗、适应及快速恢复能力为核心，通过多尺度气候情景模拟识别风险阈值，结合结构动态响应分析优化枢纽关键部位的抗灾性能。该方法整合智能监测预警技术与弹性调度机制，实现灾害前的风险预判、灾害中的损失控制及灾后的高效恢复。其突破传统静态设计局限，可根据气候变异特征动态调整设计参数，为水利枢纽应对不确定性灾害提供系统性解决方案，对保障流域水资源安全与社会经济稳定具有重要价值。

Abstract

Disasters such as floods, droughts, and storms caused by extreme climates pose severe challenges to the structural safety and functional stability of water conservancy hubs. The design method for improving the resilience of water conservancy hubs against extreme climates focuses on enhancing the system's ability to resist, adapt, and recover quickly. It identifies risk thresholds through multi-scale climate scenario simulations and optimizes the disaster resistance performance of key parts of the hub by analyzing structural dynamic responses. This method integrates intelligent monitoring and early warning technologies with flexible scheduling mechanisms to realize risk prediction before disasters, loss control during disasters, and efficient recovery after disasters. Breaking through the limitations of traditional static design, it can dynamically adjust design parameters according to climate variation characteristics, providing a systematic solution for water conservancy hubs to cope with uncertain disasters and holding significant value for ensuring basin water resource security and social-economic stability.