Does digital inclusive finance promote rural economic growth? An empirical investigation based on panel data from 30 provinces in China
数字普惠金融促进了农村经济增长吗？──来自中国30省份面板数据的实证考察

摘要

农村经济的增长是确保社会稳定和可持续发展的基石。从数字普惠金融视角，文章选取2011-2022年的省级面板数据，运用固定效应模型、机制检验模型和门槛效应模型进行多维实证探讨数字普惠金融对农村经济增长的影响。研究发现：（1）数字普惠金融对农村经济增长具有显著的正向作用；（2）机制检验结果显示，数字普惠金融能够通过推动绿色创新和改善民生间接作用提升农村经济增长；（3）通过门槛模型研究发现，数字普惠金融对农村经济的影响呈现边际递增的非线性特征；（4）异质性分析发现，数字普惠金融能促进东、西部地区农村经济增长，且区域差异显著，即西部地区的促进效果最明显，东部次之。由此，为了促进农村经济的增长，必须加强数字普惠金融基础设施的建设。同时，应充分利用发达地区在农村经济发展中的示范作用，推动绿色创新，并努力改善民众的生活水平，以缩小不同区域间的数字鸿沟。

Abstract

The growth of the rural economy is the cornerstone of ensuring social stability and sustainable development. From the perspective of digital inclusive financing, this article selects the county panel data from 2011–2022 and uses fixed impact models, mechanism testing models and threshold impact models to conduct multi-dimensional empirical studies on the impact of digital inclusive financing on rural growth. Research has shown that: (1) Digital inclusive financing has a significant positive impact on rural growth. (2) The mechanism test outcomes indicate that digital inclusive finance indirectly fosters rural economic growth by stimulating green innovation and enhancing people's well-being. (3) Utilizing the threshold model, it is revealed that the influence of digital inclusive finance on the rural economy exhibits a non-linear characteristic of incrementally marginal growth. (4) According to the heterogeneity analysis, digital inclusive finance contributes to rural economic growth in both the eastern and western regions, with notable regional disparities. Specifically, the promotional effect is most pronounced in the western region, followed closely by the eastern region.Therefore, in order to promote the growth of the rural economy, it is necessary to strengthen the construction of digital inclusive financial infrastructure. At the same time, we should make full use of the exemplary role of developed regions in rural economic development, promote green innovation, and strive to improve people's living standards to narrow the digital divide between different regions.