Climate Change and Meteorology
Climate Change and Meteorology. 2025; 1: (1) ; 10.12208/j.ccm.20250006 .
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1 潜山市气象局 安徽潜山
2 安庆市气象局 安徽安庆
3 桐城市气象局 安徽桐城
*通讯作者： 孔令帅,单位： 安庆市气象局 安徽安庆；
基于1960～2019年安庆9个国家站点的逐日最高和最低气温资料，采用百分位法界定各站点逐年极端高、低温阈值，系统分析了安庆地区近60年来极端温度的变化特征；借助Mann-Kendall检验确定温度突变年份；并运用Pearson相关系数探讨极端温度阈值与北极涛动（AO）的关联。结果表明：①安庆地区极端高温阈值呈微弱下降趋势，极端低温阈值以0.206℃/10a的速率显著上升，极端温度变化主要体现在低温端；②极端高、低温阈值空间分布呈现从大别山地区向沿江地区递增的特征，其中低温阈值增幅更为突出，且中部与沿江地区通过显著性检验；③极端高温阈值在1973年和2007年发生两次突变，极端低温阈值未出现显著突变点；④各分区极端高、低温阈值分别与夏季、冬季AO指数呈正相关，其中大别山地区高温阈值和沿江地区低温阈值受AO影响更为显著。
Based on daily maximum and minimum temperature data from nine national stations in Anqing from 1960 to 2019, the percentile method was used to define the annual extreme high and low temperature thresholds for each station. The changing characteristics of extreme temperatures in Anqing over the past 60 years were systematically analyzed. The Mann-Kendall test was used to identify years of temperature abrupt changes. The Pearson correlation coefficient was used to explore the relationship between extreme temperature thresholds and the Arctic Oscillation (AO). The results show that: ① The extreme high temperature threshold in Anqing showed a slight downward trend, while the extreme low temperature threshold increased significantly at a rate of 0.206°C/decade, with extreme temperature changes primarily occurring at the low temperature end. ② The spatial distribution of extreme high and low temperature thresholds showed an increasing trend from the Dabie Mountains to the Yangtze River Basin, with the increase in the low temperature threshold being more pronounced, and the central and Yangtze River Basin regions passing the significance test. ③ The extreme high temperature threshold experienced two sudden changes in 1973 and 2007, while the extreme low temperature threshold did not show any significant sudden changes. ④ The extreme high and low temperature thresholds in each subregion were positively correlated with the AO index in summer and winter, respectively, with the high temperature threshold in the Dabie Mountains and the low temperature threshold in the Yangtze River Basin being more significantly affected by AO.
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