Study on the Impact of Carbon Trading Policy on Sustainable Economic Welfare Based on Multi-Time-Point Double Differences Method
基于多时点双重差分法的碳交易政策对可持续经济福利的影响研究

摘要

随着全球气候变化的挑战逐渐严峻，实现经济发展绿色转型和可持续成了各国政府的共同目标。中国作为世界上最大的碳排放国之一，其碳交易市场政策的实施对促进减排和推动经济、社会及环境的协调发展具有重要意义。本文在2009-2017年中国30个省级单位所构建的可持续经济福利指数（ISEW）的面板数据的基础上，使用Stata工具并运用多时点双重差分法（MDID），评估了中国碳交易市场政策对可持续经济福利的影响。并对这一结果进行了稳健性检验，结果显示，本文基准回归的模型具有稳健性且在统计上是显著的。同时，本文也对碳交易政策的区域异质性和影响机制进行了研究，得出以下结论：碳交易政策显著提升了试点地区的可持续经济福利，且东部地区由于经济基础雄厚、资源丰富、生产技术和工艺先进，从政策中获益最大。产业结构的成熟度和城市化进程与碳交易政策的交互作用对可持续经济福利有显著正向影响。这表明产业结构优化和城市化水平的提高是促进可持续经济福利增长的重要因素。本文也基于实证得出的结果提出了一系列政策优化建议，旨在为政策制定者提供量化工具，以评估和优化现有政策，促进社会、经济和环境的和谐共生。

Abstract

As the challenges of global climate change become increasingly severe, achieving the green transformation and sustainability of economic development has become the common goal of governments around the world. China, as one of the largest carbon-emitting countries in the world, the implementation of its carbon trading market policies is of great significance for promoting emissions reduction and driving the coordinated development of the economy, society, and environment. Based on the panel data of the Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare (ISEW) constructed for 30 provincial-level units in China from 2009 to 2017, this paper uses the Stata tool and the multi-time-point difference-in-differences method (MDID) to evaluate the impact of China's carbon trading market policies on sustainable economic welfare. Robustness tests have been conducted on this result, and it shows that the benchmark regression model in this paper is robust and statistically significant. Meanwhile, this paper also conducts research on the regional heterogeneity and impact mechanism of carbon trading policies, and draws the following conclusions: The carbon trading policy has significantly improved the sustainable economic welfare in the pilot areas, and the eastern region, due to its solid economic foundation, abundant resources, and advanced production technologies and processes, has benefited the most from the policy. The interaction between the maturity of the industrial structure and the urbanization process and the carbon trading policy has a significant positive impact on sustainable economic welfare. This indicates that the optimization of the industrial structure and the improvement of the urbanization level are important factors in promoting the growth of sustainable economic welfare. Based on the results obtained from the empirical research, this paper also puts forward a series of policy optimization suggestions, aiming to provide quantitative tools for policymakers to evaluate and optimize existing policies and promote the harmonious coexistence of society, economy, and environment.