The clinical application of "atrial fibrillation risk assessment scale" for severe patients based on Delphi expert consultation and analytic hierarchy process
基于德尔菲专家咨询和层次分析法构建患者“房颤风险评估量表”的临床实践

摘要

目的 构建重症住院患者房颤风险评估量表，确立各级指标权重系数。方法 对8位专家采用德尔菲法进行2轮咨询，并应用层次分析法建立层次结构模型，构造判断矩阵，计算各指标权重。结果 2轮涵询专家的权威系数均值为0.84，确立的评价体系包括5个1级指标、22个二级指标，各级指标层次单排序及总排序一致性比率均<0.1，具有满意的一致性。结论 房颤危害极大，通过构建“房颤风险评估量表”的评价指标体系能够为重症患者房颤风险因素评估提供客观、可量化的依据。

Abstract

Objective To construct the risk assessment scale of AF in severe hospitalized patients and establish the weight coefficient of indicators at all levels.
Methods: Eight experts were used for 2 rounds of consultation, and the hierarchical analysis method was applied to establish a hierarchical structure model, construct the judgment matrix, calculate the weight of each index and test its logical consistency.
Results: The average authority coefficient of the experts of the two rounds was 0.84, and the established evaluation system included 5 level-1 indicators and 22 second-level indicators. The consistency ratio of single ranking and total ranking of all levels was <0.1, which had satisfactory consistency.
Conclusion  : Atrial fibrillation is of great harm. By constructing the evaluation index system of "atrial fibrillation risk assessment scale", it can provide an objective and quantifiable basis for the risk factor assessment of atrial fibrillation in severe patients.